Sunday, February 21, 2016

Hillary Wins Nevada By 5.5 Points Amid Second Biggest Turnout Ever

As of 9:40 PM (Pacific) Saturday night, The New York Times reports that the Nevada Democratic Caucuses went 52.7% for Hillary and 47.2% for Bernie, with about 5% of precincts left to be accounted for. 

Some sources are still spinning it as “Hillary eked out a win.”  I don’t know about that – in most elections, a 5½  point spread is usually considered a pretty decisive victory.  Sure, Bernie put in a good showing, but Hillary’s victory wasn’t “eked out.” Not by a long shot.Heck, even Fox News handed it to her - and they seem to have a whole separate bureau specifically dedicated to identifying and promoting each and every story's possible anti-Hillary angles.

Screen snip, Twitter 

About 80,000 folks* participated in Nevada's Democratic caucuses this year.  Yes, that’s about a 33% decline from 2008 (which had almost 120,000 turn out.)  But 2008 was a unicorn.

Four years before, on February 14, 2004, a mere tenth of that figure showed up to caucus for Kerry, Dean, Edwards, and the rest.  Just around 12,000 folks participated that year, and it was apparently a relatively banner year compared to earlier years. 

So we're still looking pretty dang good - a heck of a lot better than 12 years ago!

Other good news: Nevada Democrats’ caucus numbers generally vastly outstrip GOP caucus turnout. Says Politico, "in 2008 and 2012, just 44,000 and 33,000 Republicans participated in the caucuses, respectively." 

We'll see what the GOP does in a few days.  Trump may well boost their caucus turnout.  But Democrats are still looking very good in Nevada.

*Note: Most sources are reporting vote tally numbers in terms of “county delegates,” not individual participants.  Around 80,000 participants selected over 12,000 county delegates.  As of this writing, the county delegate counts for the two candidates were separated by a gap of about 650 delegates.

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